Moore's Law Lives On
In 1965, Gordon Moore produced a report outlining his infamous prediction that the number of transistors per integrated circuit (the chip) will witness an exponential growth every two years, resulting in increased performance and decreased cost per transistor. This prediction was titled by the press as "Moore's Law".
The observation has proven to be quite accurate thus far, as over the last few decades we have witnessed significant reductions in the price of processors resulting in cheaper yet more powerful and compact computing systems, a trend which seems to have continued to this very day. During the summer of 2004, Intel and AMD both announced their plans for the release of a new line of processor products, as well as significant price reductions in a range of their existing chips reaching price cuts of up to 35%, thus keeping Mooreís Law alive.
Such price cuts can be seen as an important development for personal computer (PC) and server sales, as 2004 has witnessed a global increase in purchases of ìreplacementî PCs, according to a report by Gartner. Preliminary results produced by Gartner showed that PC shipments have totalled 43 million units in the second quarter of 2004 worldwide, a 13.3 percent increase over the same period last year. So it can be said that with such significant price cuts in processors, it is possible to predict further increase in computing technology procurement across several sectors, including life sciences and healthcare.
However, other significant developments in the computer chip market have also taken place, which conform to Mooreís law. Intel has announced that it has built its next-generation and fully functional 70-megabit static random access memory (SRAM) chips with more than half a billion transistors using advanced 65 nanometer (nm) process technology.
Intelís press report, released on 30 August 2004, stated that the transistors in the new 65nm technology now contain 35nm gates (the switch that turns a transistor on and off), which are approximately 30 percent smaller than the gate lengths on the previous 90nm technology. In addition, the company has stated that the new 65nm process technology also includes several unique power-saving and performance-enhancing features.
"Intel's 65nm process technology has industry-leading density, performance and power reduction features that will enable future chips with increased capabilities and performance,î said Sunlin Chou, senior vice president and general manager of Intel's Technology and Manufacturing Group. ìIntel's 65nm technology is on track for delivery in 2005 to extend the benefits of Moore's Law."
Although the pattern of producing smaller, denser and faster processors is continuing, one cannot help but wonder how much further will this pattern go? Will there be a speed or size limit that will indicate that it is the end of the road? Possibly not.
As human beings the need for speed is in our nature. We are always rushing and demanding faster performance and better delivery from our computing systems, such as faster networking, faster data storage, faster graphics and many others. Thus, Mooreís Law might not be discarded just as yet. However, there is a new pattern emerging in the processor market, which focuses on production of more intelligent chips that require minimal human involvement for their operation.
This summer, IBM has revealed a new breakthrough chip morphing technology, called "eFUSE," that enables the production of chips capable of monitoring, regulating and adjusting their own processes in response to changing conditions and system demands. With such capabilities, these chips can allegedly improve their own quality, performance and power consumption without any human intervention.
eFUSE combines specialist software algorithms and on-chip microscopic electrical fuses and it constitutes a built-in self-repair system. According to IBM, eFUSE can detect imperfections and it "instinctively" initiates corrective operations by activating the electrical fuses that control individual circuit speed, managing power consumption and repairing unexpected, and potentially costly flaws. IBM stated in its 30 July 2004 press report that these simple electrical fuses are designed into the chip at no additional cost.
Dr Bernard Meyerson, IBM Fellow, vice president and chief technologist at IBM Systems and Technology Group, explained that eFUSE reroutes chip logic in a similar fashion as highway traffic patterns, which can be altered by opening and closing new lanes.
In addition, IBM outlined in its press report that this autonomic capability is expected to change the way chips are designed, manufactured and integrated into computers, mobile phones, consumer electronics and other products. Hence, it is technology independent, and does not require introduction of new materials, tools or processes.
This can be seen as a beginning of a new way of thinking when it comes to user choices of processors. Instead of chasing speed, users might start looking for more innovative and intelligent features of individual chips. This might become the case with enterprises and specialist businesses utilising specialist IT systems that do require more than just fast processors. But with this change in processor market demands, what would be the implications in terms of costs and possibly speed of future processors?
It will be interesting to see if Mooreís law can be applied when more intelligent processors are released in the main IT market stream. Until then, however, the production of smaller and faster processors will continue in accordance with Mooreís Law.